Oil prices fell on Monday after Iraq’s northern region resumed crude oil exports via Turkey over the weekend and OPEC+ announced another oil production increase for November. This increased the global supply.
Brent crude futures fell 43 cents, or 0.6%, to $69.70 a barrel by 06:30 GMT, after reaching their highest level since July 31 on Friday. WTI Crude fell 49 cents, or 0.8%, to $65.23 a barrel, reversing most of Friday’s gains.
Ongoing concerns about production growth are limiting gains, while the narrower near-term outlook at the start of the trading week is weighing on crude prices.
Iraq’s Ministry of Oil announced on Saturday that crude oil had resumed flowing to Türkiye via pipeline after a two-and-a-half-year hiatus, following the agreement that had ended the deadlock.
The Iraqi Oil Minister said the agreement will allow for the flow of 180,000 to 190,000 barrels of crude per day to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies are likely to approve a crude oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at a meeting on Sunday. Sources familiar with the talks said rising oil prices are encouraging the group to further increase its market share.
However, OPEC+ has been pumping almost 500,000 bpd less than its targets, defying market expectations of a supply glut.
As OPEC prepares to further reduce its spare capacity, the risk of a geopolitical surprise in October continues to rise. While the dominant narrative this summer has been the oversupply narrative in the fourth quarter of 2025, market participants are beginning to consider the growing risk of resurgence posed by the ongoing Russian, and Iranian conflict.
Brent and WTI rose more than 4% last week, posting their biggest weekly gains since June, as Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure slashed the country’s fuel exports.
Early Sunday, Russia struck Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine in one of the most sustained attacks on the capital since the outbreak of full-scale war.
Meanwhile, the United Nations reimposed an arms embargo and other sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, following a process triggered by European powers that Tehran warned would face a harsh response.