Oil prices rose on Friday after four consecutive declines, but are on track for their steepest weekly decline in 3.5 months, due to market expectations that the OPEC+ group may further increase production despite concerns about oversupply.
Brent crude futures rose 43 cents, or 0.7%, to $64.54 a barrel by 05:00 GMT. WTI rose 41 cents, or 0.7%, to $60.89 a barrel.
Brent crude fell 8% for the week, while WTI fell 7.4%.
Sources said OPEC+ could agree to increase daily oil production in November by up to three times the October increase, or 500,000 barrels per day, in a bid to reclaim Saudi Arabia’s market share.
If OPEC+ announces a 500,000 barrel/day increase this weekend, it would be large enough to push crude oil prices lower, most probably, initially falling to the support level of $58.00 before testing the year’s low of $55.00.
Analysts predict that during this period of potential OPEC+ supply growth, factors such as global crude refinery slowdowns due to maintenance and a seasonal decline in demand in the coming months will inevitably accelerate the buildup of oil inventories in the US and other countries.
Indeed, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories increased last week as refinery activity and demand weakened.
September is believed to be a turning point. The oil market is now heading for a significant surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025 and into next year.
Finance ministers from the G7 countries said on Wednesday they would take steps to increase pressure on Russia by targeting countries that continue to grow their purchases of Russian oil.This is a precaution to supply surplus, in cooperation with cutting Russia’s financial strength.