OPEC+ supply discipline and demand expectations boost oil

Oil rose Wednesday as OPEC and its allies cautiously adhere to plans to bring oil back to markets in June and July as the world’s two largest oil consumers, the US and China, expect a strong recovery in demand.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 7.1%, or 0.10%, to $67.79 as of 0500 GMT after the Memorial Day holiday in the United States on Monday. Prices soared to their highest level since October 2018.

Brent crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.24%, to $70.42 a barrel, and rose 1.3% overnight to their highest level since March 8.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed on Tuesday to pursue plans to gradually ease supply restrictions through July.

The markets moved with the statements made after the meeting. There is a strong view that the US and China saw a strong recovery in demand and that the pace of vaccinations could lead to a rebalancing of the global oil market.

The oil market seems focused on a more constructive outlook for this year, with OPEC+ predicting that the market will experience significant stock reductions between September and the end of the year.

Market gains over the past two weeks have been limited by concerns over the potential lifting of oil sanctions on Iran as progress has been made in talks to revive the nuclear deal. Negotiations faced a snag this week, however.

It is said that the talks will most likely be halted on Thursday, and it is unclear whether the talks will continue before the June 18 presidential elections in Iran.

Since the fifth round of nuclear talks in Vienna failed to produce a major diplomatic breakthrough, the return of Iranian supply does not appear to be an immediate issue for the oil market. There is already a need for a respite for demand to close the gap.

If a nuclear deal is reached, it is hoped that the return of Iranian exports will take place in an orderly and transparent manner.

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