Oil prices steady as Middle East conflict offsets ample supply outlook

Oil prices were flat on Friday, with a well-supplied global market offsetting the possibility that a wider Middle East conflict could disrupt crude flows.

Brent crude futures were flat at $77.55 a barrel by 0646 GMT. WTI Crude futures were little changed at $73.65 a barrel.

Both indices are on track for weekly gains of around 8%.

Bearish expectations for oil eased somewhat this week on growing concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East and optimism that China’s latest economic stimulus efforts could provide some lift to demand.

The Israeli army launched new airstrikes on Beirut in its fight against the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, as Israel debates whether its attacks on Iranian oil facilities in retaliation for Tehran’s missile strikes on Israel will be supported.

Oil prices rose 5% on Thursday after Iran launched its biggest-ever attack on Tuesday.

Supply risks are back in focus as tensions in the Middle East rise, but the impact is expected to be limited.

A direct attack on Iran’s oil facilities appears the least likely response for Israel, as the region accounts for more than a third of the world’s oil supply.

Such a move would upset its international partners, and a cut in Iran’s oil revenues would likely leave it with little to lose and potentially prompt a harsher response.

Oil supply concerns, which pushed prices higher earlier in the week, were tempered by OPEC’s spare production capacity and the fact that global crude supplies have not yet been disrupted by the Middle East unrest.

Libya’s eastern-based government and Tripoli-based National Oil Corp. announced the reopening of all oil fields and export terminals on Thursday after a dispute over the central bank’s leadership was resolved, ending a crisis that had drastically reduced oil production.

Iran and Libya are both members of OPEC. Iran, which operates under U.S. sanctions, is set to produce about 4.0 million barrels per day of fuel in 2023, while Libya produced about 1.3 million barrels per day last year, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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