Oil prices fell slightly on Friday, falling more than 3% for the week as concerns about supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict eased and expectations of increased supply in 2025 were weighed down.
Brent crude fell 34 cents, or 0.46%, to $72.94 a barrel. WTI crude futures closed at $68 on Thursday, down 72 cents, or 1.05%, from the last close before the Thanksgiving holiday.
Trading was slow due to the U.S. national holiday. Brent fell 3.1% for the week, while WTI lost 4.8%.
U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected this week.
A ceasefire that came into effect on Wednesday has lowered oil’s risk premium, pushing prices lower despite allegations of violations by both sides.
The Middle East conflict has not disrupted supplies that are expected to be more plentiful in 2025. The International Energy Agency (IEA) sees supply of more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd), equivalent to more than 1% of global production.
The updated picture suggests that next year will be softer than this year, with oil prices expected to remain below 2024 levels on average.
The OPEC+ group postponed its next policy meeting from Dec. 1 to Dec. 5. The group is expected to decide on further extensions of production cuts at the meeting.
After two postponements, the group must now consider the risk of further price declines as the release of products not currently on the books could lead to a crude glut next year, as strong output expectations from non-OPEC producers.
Brent could average $74.53 a barrel in 2025, according to a survey of analysts. That would be the seventh consecutive monthly downward revision.
