Ana sayfa » Oil prices climb on summer demand optimism, third-quarter supply gap forecast

Oil prices climb on summer demand optimism, third-quarter supply gap forecast

Global economic headwinds, and rising non-OPEC+ production cap the gains

by BUNKERIST

Oil prices climbed on Monday, supported by forecasts of a summer fuel consumption peak and a supply gap from OPEC+ cuts in the third quarter, but global economic headwinds and rising non-OPEC+ production cap gains.

Brent crude futures rose 53 cents, or 0.6%, to $85.53 a barrel by 0729 GMT, while WTI futures rose 51 cents, or 0.6%, to $82.05 a barrel.

Both contracts gained about 6% in June, with Brent settling above $85 a barrel in the past two weeks after the group, known as OPEC+, extended most of its deep oil output cuts to 2025.

That has led to estimates of a supply shortage in the third quarter as summer demand for transportation and air conditioning reduces fuel supplies.

On Friday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that oil production and demand for major commodities reached a four-month peak in April, supporting prices.

The industry remains bullish on Brent despite concerns about U.S. gasoline demand and Chinese demand.

China is the world’s No. 2 consumer and largest importer of crude. A private index showed factory activity among smaller Chinese producers grew fastest since 2021, even as weak domestic demand and trade frictions led to another industrial sector contraction.

Hopes for a Fed rate cut and rising geopolitical concerns also keep a floor under prices. WTI’s recent rally could extend to $85 a barrel if prices stay above its 200-day moving average of $79.52.

Another factor supporting prices is that the U.S. has entered hurricane season. Traders are monitoring the impact of hurricanes on oil and gas production and consumption in the United States.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Beryl, the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record, was moving toward the Windward Islands in the Caribbean on Monday, where it is expected to bring life-threatening winds and flash flooding.