Fuel traders and refineries, crude oil producers at OPEC + are trying to raise oil prices to higher levels. However, the global economy and fuel demand outlook for the rest of this year is not optimistic.
OPEC + wants to see high crude oil prices as soon as possible, but it does not seem to reach its target in the short term due to the softening of fuel consumption threatened by increased coronavirus cases.
Crude oil price premiums for gasoline and diesel have been flat for almost four weeks since June 23, with the coronavirus rebound and anxiety for a new crash round.
Futures for US gasoline to be delivered in September fell more than $ 11 from late June, dropping below $ 8 a barrel over Brent to be delivered in September yesterday.
Gasoline margins have been following a lower trend since June 23, after major economies recovered strongly in the past three months after the coronavirus crash.
Diesel margins have remained stable throughout the pandemic, but a moderate bullish trend has happened in recent weeks.
Despite the previous rapid and complete V-shaped recovery expectation, it raises concerns due to the widening low supply and employment period.
US gasoline consumption has been largely flat for the past three weeks as the emergence of crash has transformed into a new wave of coronavirus cases.
The refineries in the United States had to cut crude oil processing to ensure that excessive fuel stocks caused by deadlocks would melt.
Low gasoline and diesel prices give refineries signs that they should reduce processing rates to avoid a new build-up in stocks.
The refineries are trapped between OPEC +, which wants to melt its excess crude oil inventories as quickly as possible and raise oil prices higher, and the consumption of stagnant gasoline and diesel.
The brent futures prices and calendar spread have also remained fundamentally stable, as the market has been putting a strain on the refiners for the past four weeks.
Brent crude oil prices, calendar spread, and gasoline margins began to soften around June 20, as the number of confirmed coronavirus cases rose again in the United States.
Oil prices will keep being in struggle in order to rise sustainably, until the crisis is brought under control and / or the transport system is back to normal.